The role of spoiler. I hate it given that it means my team is out of contention for any bigger prize, but oh do I love to ruin a team’s good season. Carolina has a chance to end the Atlantic Division race by beating Boston College in Chestnut Hill on Saturday, and I hope the Heels can deliver.
Since joining the ACC, the Heels are 2-0 vs. BC, winning 16-14 in 2005 and 45-24 in 2008, both games at home. It will be their first visit to the Northeast to visit the Eagles, though they won 12-10 in Connecticut earlier this year.
Of note is that the Eagles are 7-0 at home, 0-3 on the road. Let’s hope those trends are bucked on Saturday.
Stats and Trends
This should be a defensive-minded game. Boston College’s offense ranks 95th in the country, while Carolina is stuck at #113. Meanwhile, BC’s defense ranks 30th while Carolina slipped to 8th after a subpar performance against Miami.
BC K Steve Aponavicius is perfect on the season, making 7/7 field goals and all 35 PAT’s. In a game like this, that could be HUGE. On the other hand, Casey Barth is 13 for his last 13, and hasn’t missed since October 3rd.
Over the course of Carolina’spast 4 games, they have rushed for 527 yards (131.7 per game). In the previous 4 FBS games this year, they only ran for 234 (58.5). The difference has been the return of players such as Jonathan Cooper, Zack Pianalto, and Lowell Dyer to the lineup. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but their impact cannot be understated.
Players to Watch
- BC RB Montel Harris: The sophomore has eclipsed the 1000-yard mark for the season, and his ability to get first downs against Carolina’s stout run defense should prove to be a big factor in the game. BC doesn’t want to get into obvious passing situations against the Heels.
- Carolina WR Jheranie Boyd: Its about time we saw another long TD strike off of play action to the freshman. I think it happens this week.
- Carolina DE E.J. Wilson: Just a gut feeling, but I think Wilson takes advantage of extra attention to Marvin Austin and Robert Quinn and picks up over a sack on BC QB Dave Shimskie.
For Carolina to win
It’s painfully obvious at this point that the offense can not be relied on to sustain enough drives to win a football game. That being said, I think Carolina needs to tap into the big plays that defined the team last year. Be it a deep ball, kick return, or (like last week) interception return, the Heels need a couple plays of 50+ yards. Players likely to deliver, in this order: Jheranie Boyd, Johnny White, Charles Brown (no way they throw at Kendric Burney), Bruce Carter, Greg Little.
For BC to win
Although Shimskie is old enough to be out of grad school by now (he’s a 25-year old freshman), he has not shown that he can avoid critical errors. He needs to take what Carolina’s defense gives him and play an efficient game, letting the Eagles’ D win the field position battle.
Fearless Prediction
Neither team impressed against Virginia (BC won 14-10 last week), but the Eagles won the game. Does that give them momentum coming into this week? Not quite like the Heels have. Theories abound that our offense is better on the road, when it doesn’t have to listen to the ‘fans’ that boo T.J. Yates and company. I’d take the over on this game, because there’ll be big plays and costly mistakes. Heels 30, Eagles 22.
Around the ACC
Last week: 4-1 Overall: 53-23
53-23? Maybe I should start picking against the spread, this doesn’t seem to be fair anymore.
Florida State 41, Maryland 24: Games like this make it easy to pick winners.
NEAR UPSET: Miami 34, Duke 31 (OT): I have a gut feeling about this one. If Jacory Harris is still gift-wrapping interceptions like he was last week, and Duke can move the ball, the unthinkable could happen. I think Miami has too much firepower in the end.
Virginia Tech 31, N.C. State 16: I may actually cheer for State to help our bowl positioning in this game…
Clemson 52, Virginia 13: Unlike seasons past, Clemson answers the bell and takes care of business.