On to the Carolina/Pitt matchup, I can’t say that I’m not excited about Carolina’s prospects in this game.  We have been excellent at stopping the run all season, and (as evidenced by Dion Lewis’ 46 carries in their loss to Cincinnati on Saturday) Pittsburgh loves to run the ball. It’d be great to finish the season with our first bowl win since New Year’s Eve 2001 and a 9-4 record.

I’ll have more on this later, I just wanted to make sure the readers know I’m still here after the West Raleigh debacle. Congratulations to Georgia Tech to finishing what they started in Tampa Bay with an exciting 39-34 win over Clemson.  Also, congratulations to the ACC for getting over 42,000 in the seats, up almost 15,000 from last year.

You can’t say enough about Russell Wilson, who singlehandedly beat the Tar Heels on a day where the offense was reminiscient of last year’s big play attack. I hope he goes pro in baseball and stops torturing us when our team is clearly the better one on the field.

Congratulations to the Wolfpack fans (my mom inparticular) who put up with me even after reading the more disparaging post I put up on Thursday. For some reason, y’all have our number. Just answer me this one question: what bowl are you going to?

- With a positive result, we would be talking about the maturation of the passing game, in particular Greg Little. What a ballgame this man had. His hands have always been questionable, but for the first time he looked like he KNEW he was coming down with every ball thrown his way. I love a confident player, and Little was definitely that today. 159 yards receiving.

- What happened after State’s first three drives? Carolina stopped the Wolfpack three and out on their first three drives, but it looked to me like State’s coaches were trying to figure out the pulse of Carolina’s defense early on. Once they spread it out and let Wilson get a few quick hitters to Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer, all 54 yards (the width) of the field were prone to be attacked. Wilson exploited every last one of them.

- Sweet tattoos, N.C. State K Josh Czajkowski.

- Running game: Ryan Houston looked freshman year timid today (although that could be because I’m watching Toby Gerhart and Jonathan Dwyer as I write this post). He was tiptoeing around holes and got stopped in the backfield more often than usual. Meanwhile, I’ll pat myself on the back for calling Johnny White as a player to watch. 83 yards, including his 40-yard touchdown run (the best executed play by UNC’s offense all season) were marred by his goal line fumble.

- Our secondary is vulnerable against quarterbacks who are any threat to get the ball downfield. Wilson and Christian Ponder have been the best demonstrators of this fact, so hopefully our bowl opponent has a QB with a separated throwing shoulder. It was embarrassing to see Charles Brown, especially, talk trash, get burned, then talk more trash.

- As a program, we still have growing to do. Two ‘inexcusable’ losses this season show room to grow, but also plenty of room to digress. I still trust in the staff to get us over the hump, starting with revenge wins against State and Virginia in 2010.

- Marvin Austin played the best game of his Carolina career. He was in the State backfield all day, making plays in the running game and a sack to end the first half. If you go pro, best of luck to you big guy. I’d rather you come back and beat these guys once instead.

Stats and Trends

Although the Wolfpack has won the last two games in this series, Carolina holds a 63-29-6 advantage all-time, and has won 5 of 7 in Raleigh. An interesting note from this week’s release on the game is that the team with more rushing yards has won 16 of the past 17 meetings. While State probably has the better rushing attack, Carolina has by far the less porous defense. I’ll call it a push while ever-so-slightly favoring Carolina.

Russell Wilson, who holds the NCAA record for consecutive throws without an interception, has now thrown 11 in the past 6 games (he threw two last season). While this is due to the offense being forced to carry the team, it does show that State can be forced into mistakes.

With 508 interception return yards, Carolina leads the nation in that category by a wide margin (Clemson is second with 396). With two interceptions, the Heels will tie the 1972 team’s record with 21 interceptions for the season.

While on the subject of defense, it should be noted that the Heels rank behind four teams in yards allowed per game at 261.6. The teams ahead of them? Alabama, Florida, Texas, and TCU. It’s worth mentioning that those teams are a combined 44-0 this season.

Players to Watch

N.C. State DE Willie Young: As the senior leader of the Wolfpack defense, it is pivotal to State’s chances that Young gets pressure on T.J. Yates. Carolina will try to pick apart the back seven through the short and intermediate passing game, so he won’t have much time to get there.

UNC KR/WR/HB Johnny White: With the injuries in the backfield, we will see White’s roles expanded yet again. He has been an impact player on special teams all season long as a gunner and returner, and State’s porous kickoff coverage could give him a chance for big plays. We’ll also see him lined up all over the field on offense. I think he has a breakout game.

N.C. State OC Dana Bible: Not a player, but I want to wish him the best. If you haven’t heard, Bible was diagnosed with leukemia this past weekend. Rivalry or not, there are some things bigger than football. Rest assured that Tar Heel nation is behind you, Coach.

For Carolina to win

The Heels need to set up the vertical passing game with Ryan Houston and the power running. If he can break into the second level and get the defensive backs to cheat up, it will open up all kinds of windows vs. State’s inexperienced secondary. It’s not fair to ask for the turnovers to keep going Carolina’s way, but a few more mistakes by N.C. State certainly wouldn’t hurt.

For State to win

They’ll be passionate in front of their home crowd, playing for one of their coaches, in their version of the Super Bowl. I look for them to play their best game of the season (and remember they handed Pittsburgh their only loss), and play a tough brand of football. If they can fly around the football on defense and the offensive line lets Russell Wilson do his thing, the Heels could be in for a long day.

Fearless Prediction

I’m not gonna lie, this prediction is anything but fearless. Regardless, Heels 27, Wolfpack 22.

Around the ACC

Ah, rivalry week. If I can’t find a ticket to CFS, I’ll be treated to a bevy of good games. It’s been a fun season at RTTB, and hopefully they’ll let (those of us fortunate enough to work for teams going to bowls) stick around.

Last week 5-0 (finally!) Overall 58-23

#15 Clemson 35, South Carolina 17: If not for South Carolina’s annual late-season nosedive, I would pick this to be a lot closer and possibly an upset. As it stands, however, I think this may be it for Steve Spurrier.

Duke 31, Wake Forest 27: Should be a good, if not irrelevant, game between two of the most decorated quarterbacks in their schools’ histories. I’ll take the Dukies since they’re at home and playing for a .500 record for the first time in 15 years.

#1 Florida 52, Florida State 24: Sadly, the Seminoles’ defense is one of the weakest Tebow & Co. has faced all season. I think the Gators walk over FSU, and you start to hear ‘Tebow for Heisman’ cries from the media after his final home game.

Maryland 21, Boston College 13: Why not? I saw nothing too impressive about the Eagles last Saturday, and the Terps are due to win one.

South Florida 34, #19 Miami 20: Get Jim Leavitt on the phone with Urban Meyer, and let’s see if he can sweep Florida’s ‘Big Three’ next year.

#14 Virginia Tech 24, Virginia 0: I’d LOVE for the Wahoos to pull off the upset and improve Carolina’s bowl standing, unfortunately that just isn’t going to happen.

#7 Georgia Tech 44, Georgia 35: As ACC fans, we NEED the Yellow Jackets to win this one. A loss has talking heads again bemoaning the weakness of the conference, which hurts our chances next season when as many as 5 teams (I see both Techs, Miami, UNC, and Clemson) could compete for BCS berths.

North Carolina State University, the brick-littered West Raleigh community college living forever in the shadow of the flagship university 27 miles to its west, beat my Tar Heels 41-10 in Kenan Stadium last year. The inability for the Heels to hold on to the football on that cold November day and the sight of inebriated red Starter jersey-clad State fans makes my blood boil as I write.

While I have a lot of close friends and family members who I’ll offend with that previous paragraph, they’ll forgive me by Christmas. The insufferable delusion of Moo-U’s fan base (as a whole) is exponentially more annoying even than Duke’s. DISCLAIMER: It should be noted that, since I live in North Carolina and not New Jersey, I don’t run across many Duke fans.

I’m ashamed to write this post only because it qualifies as a must-win for Butch Davis and the Tar Heels. To go 0-3 against a school that once hosted a parade in honor of a 10-win Gator Bowl Champion would be a major setback for the program. Hearing “41-10″ every time I try to have an intellegent debate with a Pack fan has to stop, especially when I know good and well their team has won 28% of the games in the history of the “rivalry.” Most of all, quiet Military disciplinarian Tom O’Brien  (who I still think is Opie from The Andy Griffith Show, the later years) had the audacity to state that his team was the “best football program in the state, without question” after that game.

Whereas it is Thanksgiving, and we all are certainly blessed, I won’t dig any further into these guys (for now). I expect it to be a hard-fought smashmouth game with lots of personal fouls and hard hits. The Packers will do it because big brother is beating up on them. The Heels will do it because they want to intimidate their potential bowl opponents.

1) Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-1 ACC): The Jackets got a week off to prepare for rival Georgia, and hopefully take care of business.

2) Clemson (8-3, 6-2 ACC): Which Tigers team shows up in the Championship Game? The one that went down 21-0 at Georgia Tech before they broke a sweat or the one who almost came back to win the game? Finally, an exciting matchup.

3) North Carolina (8-3, 4-3 ACC): Didn’t see this coming a month ago. We have to get one more this week in West Raleigh.

4) Virginia Tech (8-3, 5-2 ACC): I’ve been really mean to Virginia on this blog this year. I don’t believe in karma, however, so I’m thinking they’re due to beat the Hokies this week. (please?)

5) Miami (8-3, 5-3 ACC): They sleepwalked through a home win against Duke, but the Canes are still going to be a tough out for South Florida and their bowl opponent. Best case for the ACC would be for the U, along with Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Clemson all getting to 10 wins.

6) Boston College (7-4, 4-3 ACC): Incapability at quarterback can be masked by a solid running game and defense. This faith keeps the Eagles in the top half of the standings.

7) Florida State (6-5, 4-4 ACC): What was ugliest about FSU’s 29-26 win over Maryland on Saturday?

A) The jerseys, which ironically, looked like Maryland’s

B) DC Mickey Andrews’ chuck of Chief Osecola’s spear into midfield (it’s the last home game for the Noles before the decorated coach retires. What a season to do it.

C) 29-26 win with last-minute heroics against…Maryland.

I lean towards A and C, but I think D) All of the above would be the most appropriate.

8 ) Duke (5-6, 3-4 ACC): Question: Would Duke have competed for the ACC in the Atlantic Division? Evidence exists to support this. They’re 2-0 (granted, against NCSU and Maryland) in the Atlantic, and have a winnable game against Wake this week. I could see them stealing one or both against FSU and BC, so you never know where they’d be.

9) Wake Forest (4-7, 2-5 ACC): Nothing profound to say about the Deacs.

10) Virginia (3-8, 2-5 ACC): They actually played Clemson pretty well, but they need to play like they have nothing to lose this Saturday.

11) N.C. State (4-7, 1-6 ACC): It should be fun on Saturday. Hope y’all enjoyed 41-10 while it lasted.

12) Maryland (2-9, 1-6 ACC): I considered moving them up in the rankings, but then realized that a close loss at Florida State really isn’t that impressive.

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/uncs-carter-will-return-for-senior-season

This is HUGE to get news like this out in the open, as Carter will get NFL people off his back and be able to recruit some teammates (I’m talking to you, Marvin, Deunta, Quan, Kendric) back for what could be a special 2010 season.

This helps with the article I’ve started drafting about next year in the future, which you’ll see between now and Thanksgiving (intersperced with some anti-N.C. State postings and the power rankings, coming up soon).

Well, not even a month later, I look back on the season to date and can’t be anything but proud of my Tar Heels. Butch Davis has led the team to four straight wins, all against ACC foes (two of them ranked). Offensive Coordinator John Shoop deserves all the credit in the world for adjusting the play calling to maximize the talent he has, which means a lot of pre-snap movement and quick-hitters to our best playmakers.

Sitting at 8-3, Carolina fans can be satisfied knowing that the Heels will be bowling in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1998. Given the team’s resilience over the past month, the future is certainly bright in Chapel Hill.

What happened in Chestnut Hill this past weekend was, to me, an extension of the Miami win and proof that this program will be defined by a strong defense as long as Coach Davis is here. Five more interceptions and 14 more points for the defense? It makes every play of the game exciting for Heels fans (the more cynical would say that we’re more likely to score on defense…).

Although I was relegated to watching the game on a smaller TV without High Definition (unacceptable in 2009), this is what I observed from the Heels:

- Deunta Williams: We’re trying to keep you here for your senior season. Three interceptions isn’t going to help, just knock it down!

- With 8 combined interceptions between the two teams, and overall inept offenses on both sides, I made the comment repeatedly during the game that it looked like a high school tilt. After re-watching some highlights, I stand by that statement.

- Running back situation went from bad to worse for the Heels. Already missing the 1st, 3rd, and 4th options, Ryan Houston and Anthony Elzy were both injured during the game. All indications are that Houston will be back next week, but when can our offense catch a break?

- T.J. Yates, I hate to say it, seems lost out there. His footwork is inconsistent at best, and when he looks antsy in the pocket, he tends to make a bad play. It was inexcusable criminal for the offense to have three drives into BC territory in the third quarter produce no points. I think Yates needs some time off to get back to being the player he once was. He can do it.

- Stat of the season: Boston College was 0-13 on third downs in the game. That, my friends, is how a defense wins you football games.

- Jumping out to the 21-0 lead was great, but holding on to it was better. The defense’s ability to respond against a short field and hold the Eagles to field goals twice in the second quarter was the difference in the game, in my opinion. A touchdown on either of those drives coupled with our inability to score may have shifted momentum to the home team.

- Shameless shout out to big Cam Thomas of Moore County, N.C. Way to score one for the folks at home big fella.

- I love when Yates can get the ball to our fullbacks in the flat. While Devon Ramsey didn’t play (to my knowledge), Anthony Elzy and Bobby Rome both had big first down catches. Their size and speed make them threats for big plays once they get in the open field, and I would love to see them utilized more in the passing game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS-HfUM_olE

Since joining the ACC, the Heels are 2-0 vs. BC, winning 16-14 in 2005 and 45-24 in 2008, both games at home. It will be their first visit to the Northeast to visit the Eagles, though they won 12-10 in Connecticut earlier this year.

Of note is that the Eagles are 7-0 at home, 0-3 on the road. Let’s hope those trends are bucked on Saturday.

Stats and Trends

This should be a defensive-minded game. Boston College’s offense ranks 95th in the country, while Carolina is stuck at #113. Meanwhile, BC’s defense ranks 30th while Carolina slipped to 8th after a subpar performance against Miami.

BC K Steve Aponavicius is perfect on the season, making 7/7 field goals and all 35 PAT’s. In a game like this, that could be HUGE. On the other hand, Casey Barth is 13 for his last 13, and hasn’t missed since October 3rd.

Over the course of Carolina’spast 4 games, they have rushed for 527 yards (131.7 per game). In the previous 4 FBS games this year, they only ran for 234 (58.5). The difference has been the return of players such as Jonathan Cooper, Zack Pianalto, and Lowell Dyer to the lineup. I know I’ve mentioned this before, but their impact cannot be understated.

Players to Watch

- BC RB Montel Harris: The sophomore has eclipsed the 1000-yard mark for the season, and his ability to get first downs against Carolina’s stout run defense should prove to be a big factor in the game. BC doesn’t want to get into obvious passing situations against the Heels.

- Carolina WR Jheranie Boyd: Its about time we saw another long TD strike off of play action to the freshman. I think it happens this week.

- Carolina DE E.J. Wilson: Just a gut feeling, but I think Wilson takes advantage of extra attention to Marvin Austin and Robert Quinn and picks up over a sack on BC QB Dave Shimskie.

For Carolina to win

It’s painfully obvious at this point that the offense can not be relied on to sustain enough drives to win a football game. That being said, I think Carolina needs to tap into the big plays that defined the team last year. Be it a deep ball, kick return, or (like last week) interception return, the Heels need a couple plays of 50+ yards. Players likely to deliver, in this order: Jheranie Boyd, Johnny White, Charles Brown (no way they throw at Kendric Burney), Bruce Carter, Greg Little.

For BC to win

Although Shimskie is old enough to be out of grad school by now (he’s a 25-year old freshman), he has not shown that he can avoid critical errors. He needs to take what Carolina’s defense gives him and play an efficient game, letting the Eagles’ D win the field position battle.

Fearless Prediction

Neither team impressed against Virginia (BC won 14-10 last week), but the Eagles won the game. Does that give them momentum coming into this week? Not quite like the Heels have. Theories abound that our offense is better on the road, when it doesn’t have to listen to the ‘fans’ that boo T.J. Yates and company. I’d take the over on this game, because there’ll be big plays and costly mistakes. Heels 30, Eagles 22.

Around the ACC

Last week: 4-1 Overall: 53-23

53-23? Maybe I should start picking against the spread, this doesn’t seem to be fair anymore.

Florida State 41, Maryland 24: Games like this make it easy to pick winners.

NEAR UPSET: Miami 34, Duke 31 (OT): I have a gut feeling about this one. If Jacory Harris is still gift-wrapping interceptions like he was last week, and Duke can move the ball, the unthinkable could happen. I think Miami has too much firepower in the end.

Virginia Tech 31, N.C. State 16: I may actually cheer for State to help our bowl positioning in this game…

Clemson 52, Virginia 13: Unlike seasons past, Clemson answers the bell and takes care of business.

Out
Joshua Adams WR Shoulder
AJ Blue RB/QB Knee
Curtis Campbell DB Wrist
David Collins OL Foot
Shaun Draughn TB Shoulder
Carl Gaskins OT Knee
Matt Merletti S Knee
Trevor Stuart DS Knee
Ryan Taylor TE Knee
Jamal Womble TB Wrist

Questionable
Devon Ramsay FB Ankle
Gene Robinson DB Back

Awful lot of guys out for the season…